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Trends Tracker

The Indexfundtrends.com Trends Tracker is a proprietary measure of stock market momentum which tracks over a dozen different measurements across global equity and bond markets.  It is measured on a scale of 0 to 100.  

  • Measurements greater than 68 are generally considered a healthy bull market for equities.
  • Measurements between 45 and 68 are considered a more cautious period for equities.  Investors might consider investments in safer holdings like bonds or cash during this time.
  • Measurements below 45 are considered bear markets.  Investors who want to avoid losses in equity holdings could consider safer investments like short-term bonds or cash.

Long-term Trends Tracker

For a longer term view of trends, the Trends Tracker chart below shows data over the past 15 years.

The table includes time periods when the Trends Tracker was in the Red for two or more consecutive months.

Time periodEvent
2008-20092008-2009 Financial Crisis; On November 2008 QE1 was announced and TrendsTracker started to rise.
2011August 8, 2011 downgrade of US Government debt from AAA, or “risk free”, to AA+, United States debt-ceiling crisis of 2011
2015-2016Greek debt default in June 2015, June 2015 Chinese stock market turbulence, devaluation of Chinese yuan, Brexit June 2016, Dec 2015 Fed Reserve raises rates to 0.50%
2018U.S. Fed Reserve raises rates 3 times in 2018 and 4 times in 2018 to 2.50%, trade wars with China, tariffs enacted.
2020COVID-19 pandemic, March 2020: QE4, rates lowered to 0.25% again in response.
2022Rising inflation over 8%, U.S. Fed Reserve raises short term rates, Russia invades Ukraine.